Aditya Vaibhav | The TrickyScribe: In a significant geopolitical development, Nepal and China clinched a landmark deal to implement Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Nepal. This agreement, sealed during Nepalese Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli’s visit to Beijing, marks a pivotal moment in China-Nepal relations and raises fresh concerns for India amid shifting dynamics in South Asia.
Although Nepal had signed a Memorandum of Understanding with China for cooperation under the BRI back in 2017, progress on its implementation had been stalled for years. India’s reservations about the BRI, which it views as a challenge to its regional influence, have long weighed on Kathmandu’s decisions. New Delhi has consistently conveyed its expectation that Nepal should remain sensitive to India’s concerns, particularly as the BRI projects often tread sensitive political and territorial grounds.
Prime Minister Oli hailed the agreement, emphasizing that Nepal-China economic cooperation would flourish under the Belt and Road framework. Oli’s return to power in July this year, after toppling Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s government, has evidently revitalized Kathmandu’s engagement with Beijing. During his earlier tenure, Oli had strained relations with India over the territorial dispute involving the Lipulekh-Kalapani-Limpiyadhura area, an issue that remains unresolved.
The Nepal-China BRI deal underscores Beijing’s determination to deepen its ties with South Asian nations. While Nepal sees economic opportunity in collaborating with China, the geopolitical ramifications of its alignment with the BRI are significant. For India, the challenge lies in balancing its own strategic interests while managing its complex relationships with neighbors increasingly drawn to China’s orbit. As the regional chessboard evolves, India must reinforce its diplomatic and economic engagements to safeguard its influence in South Asia.
China’s Expanding Footprint
China’s BRI, despite its promise of connectivity and development, has courted global controversy due to allegations of “debt-trap diplomacy.” Several developing nations in Asia and Africa have found themselves burdened by unsustainable debt after participating in Chinese-funded projects. Nepal’s decision to proceed with the BRI raises questions about the financial and political implications of Beijing’s involvement in its infrastructure development.
Beyond Nepal, China’s influence is extending across South Asia. In Bangladesh, the collapse of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government on August 5 has provided Beijing with an opportunity to expand its foothold. The Communist Party of China recently hosted a delegation from Jamat-i-Islami and other Islamist political parties, known for their anti-India stance. This outreach aligns with Beijing’s broader strategy of leveraging political and ideological factions to counterbalance India’s influence in the region.
Meanwhile, India’s relationship with Bangladesh has hit turbulence. Following the rise of interim Prime Minister Muhammad Yunus, New Delhi has expressed concerns over increasing atrocities against Hindus and other minorities. The arrest of Hindu monk Chinmoy Krishna Das Brahmachari in Chittagong has further strained ties, triggering protests in India.
India’s Countermoves
Amid these developments, New Delhi is bolstering its regional partnerships to counter China’s assertiveness. Bhutan’s King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Thursday and Friday to discuss border issues and bilateral ties. Bhutan has faced growing pressure from Beijing to accept its terms for resolving a longstanding boundary dispute.
India will also host Sri Lanka’s newly elected President Anura Kumar Dissanayake later this month, signaling its commitment to strengthening relations with its southern neighbor. These diplomatic engagements reflect India’s strategy to maintain its influence and counter China’s growing presence in its traditional sphere of influence.
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