Ganesh Kumar | Team TrickyScribe: Dastardly terrorist attack in Pahalgam has reshaped South Asia’s diplomatic dynamics, with global powers like the USA and Russia rallying behind India.
China’s alignment with Pakistan and its intensified diplomatic manoeuvres in Nepal, however, signal a strategic challenge. As China pressures Nepal to adopt a neutral stance, India is countering with robust diplomacy and heightened border security. This article explores the unfolding geopolitical contest, focusing on China’s outreach to Nepal, India’s diplomatic response, and increased vigilance along the India-Nepal border.
China’s Strategic Pivot to Nepal
Following the Pahalgam attack, China has openly supported Pakistan’s call for an investigation, diverging from the global consensus condemning the incident. Simultaneously, China has escalated its diplomatic engagement in Nepal, a key neighbor of India.
The Chinese ambassador in Kathmandu has held extensive meetings not only with Nepal’s government but also with leaders across the political spectrum. These interactions suggest a concerted effort to sway Nepal’s stance, potentially undermining India’s influence in the region. China’s actions reflect a broader strategy to counter global support for India by leveraging its proximity to South Asian neighbours.
India’s Diplomatic Counteroffensive
Alert to China’s moves, India has intensified efforts to strengthen ties with its neighbors. A notable success is the recent meeting between an Indian diplomatic delegation and Afghanistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, signaling India’s ability to secure regional alliances. In Nepal, India is deploying high-level diplomacy to prevent the country from succumbing to Chinese influence. Vijay Chauthaiwale, head of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s foreign affairs department, arrived in Kathmandu on April 30 for a three-day visit.
His schedule includes meetings with Nepal’s Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli, Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, and Madhesi leaders. These engagements aim to reinforce India’s historical ties with Nepal and ensure alignment on counter-terrorism efforts.
Nepal’s Mixed Signals
Nepal’s response to the Pahalgam attack has been contradictory, reflecting internal political divisions and possible Chinese influence. Prime Minister Oli condemned the attack in a call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the Nepalese government issued a statement denouncing terrorism.
Dissenting voices within Nepal’s ruling coalition, particularly from the Nepali Congress, however, have raised concerns. Chief Whip Shyam Ghimire’s parliamentary speech emphasized Nepal’s non-aligned stance and advocated for dialogue to resolve conflicts, avoiding explicit support for India. This divergence from the government’s position suggests external pressures, likely from China, complicating Nepal’s foreign policy.
Nepali Congress’s Parliamentary Stance
In his parliamentary address, Shyam Ghimire articulated the Nepali Congress’s position: “A unique scenario is unfolding in global politics, and South Asia is not untouched by it. The Nepali Congress stands against all forms of extremism, terrorism, and war, while supporting global peace. All forms of war and conflict should be resolved through dialogue. Nepal does not support any country, military alliance, or any kind of military action.”
While condemning the Pahalgam attack, Ghimire’s emphasis on non-alignment and dialogue over military action has sparked concerns in India, as it aligns with China’s narrative of de-escalation and neutrality.
India’s Concerns Over Nepal’s Neutrality
Nepali Congress’s statement is particularly troubling for India, given the party’s democratic credentials and its role in Nepal’s ruling coalition alongside the Communist Party. India perceives this as a potential shift in Nepal’s foreign policy under Chinese influence, which could weaken the historically strong India-Nepal relationship.
Nepal’s insistence on non-alignment, especially in the context of rising South Asian tensions, risks diluting its support for India’s anti-terrorism efforts. India’s diplomatic outreach, led by figures like Chauthaiwale, aims to counter this narrative and reaffirm Nepal’s alignment with India’s security concerns.
Heightened Vigilance at the India-Nepal Border
In response to the geopolitical shifts, India has significantly bolstered security along its 1,751-km border with Nepal. Battalions of the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) stationed at the India-Nepal border have intensified daily checks, extending scrutiny from major routes to rural paths and riverine areas.
Every individual crossing the border is subject to identity verification, with belongings scanned using X-ray machines. This heightened vigilance has already yielded results, with the apprehension of an American citizen living illegally and a cyber-fraud suspect attempting to flee to Nepal. These measures underscore India’s determination to secure its borders amid regional
Implications of China’s Regional Strategy
China’s outreach to Nepal is part of a broader strategy to encircle India diplomatically, leveraging its influence in neighboring countries. By fostering neutrality or pro-China sentiments in Nepal, Beijing aims to dilute India’s regional dominance and counter the global support India has garnered post-Pahalgam.
This move aligns with China’s historical backing of Pakistan on Kashmir-related issues, as seen in its support for Pakistan’s call for an investigation into the attack. The increasing Chinese diplomatic footprint in Kathmandu, coupled with Nepal’s mixed signals, highlights the challenges India faces in maintaining its sphere of influence.
India’s Multifaceted Response
India’s response to China’s maneuvers is multifaceted, combining diplomatic outreach with strengthened border security. The deployment of senior BJP leader Vijay Chauthaiwale to Nepal underscores India’s proactive approach to countering Chinese influence through direct political engagement.
Simultaneously, enhanced border vigilance ensures that security threats are contained, particularly in light of Nepal’s porous border, which has historically been exploited by anti-India elements. India’s diplomatic victories, such as the Afghanistan meeting, further bolster its regional standing, signaling to China that India remains a formidable player in South Asian geopolitics.
A Delicate Balancing Act
The Pahalgam attack has exposed fault lines in South Asia’s geopolitical landscape, with China’s outreach to Nepal emerging as a critical challenge for India. While global powers back India’s anti-terrorism stance, China’s alignment with Pakistan and its pressure on Nepal threaten to disrupt regional dynamics.
India’s swift diplomatic and security measures reflect its determination to counter these challenges. As Vijay Chauthaiwale engages Nepal’s leadership and the SSB tightens border controls, India is signaling its resolve to protect its interests. The coming months will test India’s ability to navigate this complex geopolitical terrain, balancing diplomacy with vigilance to maintain its regional influence.
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