Abdul Qadir | Team TrickyScribe: Is it Jumla moment in USA? Going by President Trump’s rhetoric in his half day long office on 20 January’2025, the answer is in the affirmative. ‘Make USA great again’ slogan appears to be in perfect sync with the ‘Vishv Guru’ craze. Trump or no Trump, USA has been calling most of the international shots for close to a century now and certainly after the second world war that finally saw the sun set on the British umpire.
National Pride Before and After Leaders
Notwithstanding PM Modi’s political marketing strategy, nobody was ever ashamed of being born in India before 2014, certainly not this pen pusher. Similarly, Americans held themselves in awe much before the biological birth of their current President and they will remain as such much after Trump becomes history or nightmare depending on which side of the divide you stand.
Deporting Undocumented Immigrants: A Massive Challenge
Deportation of the undocumented people, an important component of manual labour in the USA, is easier said than done. As per estimates, there are about 12 million undocumented people living in the cities and villages of the USA. Of them about 7.25 lakhs are Indians. To deport, these many Indians who roughly constitute only 6 pc of all the illegal immigrants, Trump needs 2,000 aeroplanes, 30,000 flying hours and about 2.5 lakh tonnes of aviation fuel. Gangetic task by any standard.
Role of Illegal Immigrants in the US Economy
Not only that, sans illegal immigrants who have become inalienable part of the US economy, USA will be what Delhi would be without the Purvanchalis. Illegal immigrants are like the lubricant that keeps American economy running.
Pitfalls of Protectionism
Moreover, America of all the countries of the world can not afford to be protectionist. If others too, become similarly protectionist, and most countries are unlikely to take things lying down, where will be the market for the ‘Made in USA’ goods.
Protectionism Versus Global Realities
The protectionist slogan may be music to the ears of his constituents, most of whom live in their shells and have not got the benefit of quality education provided by the American universities, but in the real hard world, it is an impracticable idea, more so in a situation in which China is making everything under the sun including Gods and deities. Whether Trump in his moment of Triumph likes it or not, China will make him less boisterous both economically as well as militarily.
The India-USA Equation
The perceived bonhomie between ‘great’ and the ‘guru’ may be missing. But Trump or any other American President for that matter can not write India off as it needs India, both as a mega market as well as the biggest supplier of skilled manpower, the life blood of the USA economy.
The Irony of Trump’s Peace Initiative
Trump’s peace initiative is ironical as well as self contradictory. The horse can not be friend to the grass, goes a popular saying in India. It is an open secret that the American economy survives and thrives on account of its weapon business. The weapon will become redundant once there is peace in the world. War and at least the threat of war is a must to keep USA big. What to talk of the President, very few ordinary Americans consider global peace as their economic agenda.
Trump’s Second Presidency: Disruptive but Limited
All this does not mean that Trump’s second and last Presidency would be a non event. Being a compulsive disruptionist, Trump will engineer bubbles/tremors. But these bubbles/tremors are unlikely to cause tsunami or major earthquake. It may unnerve those having a chicken’s heart. And then it is only a matter of four years and four years pass as moments in the history of mankind.
Navigating India’s Strategy with Trump
Apparently more ‘chatur’ than our most clever ‘bania’ Trump is sure to bargain hard with India and the bully in him is likely to overpower him at the negotiating table and it is for India to come out with the right mix of tact and firmness. India can not afford to be either too servilient or too assertive.
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