Aditya Vaibhav | Team TrickyScribe: Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), chaired by the Prime Minister on the evening of April 22, 2025, delivered a resounding verdict on Pakistan’s continued complicity in cross-border terrorism. In the wake of the horrific terrorist attack in Pahalgam—which claimed the lives of 25 Indians and one Nepali citizen—the CCS announced a suite of punitive measures that will fundamentally alter the India-Pakistan relationship. Pakistan now faces diplomatic isolation, economic and hydrological pressures, and the collapse of key confidence-building measures.
Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty: Water as Leverage
Perhaps the most dramatic step is the abeyance of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960. For over six decades, the treaty has governed the sharing of the Indus basin waters between India and Pakistan, even through periods of conflict. By suspending the IWT “with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism,” India is weaponizing water—a resource critical to Pakistan’s agriculture and hydropower sectors.
Implication: Pakistan’s farming heartlands in Punjab and Sindh depend heavily on Indus water; any prolonged disruption could precipitate an agrarian crisis, fuel economic distress, and stoke internal unrest. This move marks a paradigm shift, demonstrating that India will no longer compartmentalize water-sharing from security realities.
Closure of the Attari Integrated Check Post: Severing People-to-People Ties
Effective immediately, the Attari border crossing—one of the busiest land routes between the two countries—has been closed. Those with valid endorsements have until May 1, 2025, to return to their home countries. This blunt instrument severs trade flows, tourist exchanges, and the invaluable people-to-people contacts that have, until now, offered a thin lifeline amidst frosty ties.
Implication: Local economies on both sides of the border, which depend on cross-border trade and transit, will feel the brunt within weeks.
While Indian sellers will now start buying and selling with entities based in other countries, Pakistan’s markets will bear the brunt. Beyond economics, the closure deepens the psychological divide, making any future rapprochement more fraught.
Visa Retaliation: Cancelling SAARC Exemptions
In a reciprocal move, all Pakistani nationals are stripped of their SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) privileges, with existing SVES visas deemed cancelled and a strict 48-hour window for exit. This measure not only curbs official and cultural exchanges but also sends a message of total non-engagement.
Speculation: It is likely that Pakistan will respond with its own visa bans on Indian citizens, erecting yet another barrier to dialogue and fueling bilateral mistrust.
Diplomatic Downsizing: From High Commission to Low Commission
India has declared Pakistani Defence, Naval, and Air Advisors in New Delhi as persona non grata, giving them one week to leave. In a mirror response, India’s own service advisors in Islamabad will be withdrawn, and five support staff from both sides will follow suit. Moreover, the overall strength of both High Commissions will shrink from 55 to 30 by May 1, 2025.
Implication: Such extreme diplomatic downsizing signals that India is prepared to abandon even the minimal channels of military-to-military communication—a step that may step up potential of further miscalculations.
A New Era of “Zero Tolerance”: Vigilance & Retaliation
The CCS has directed all security forces to maintain heightened vigilance and vowed to bring perpetrators and their sponsors to justice—citing, by name, recent successes such as the extradition of Tahawwur Rana. This “unrelenting pursuit” doctrine marks a shift from reactive counter-terrorism to proactive, transnational manhunts.
Implication: Pakistan’s soil, long accused of harboring terrorist training camps and facilitators, may now become a hunting ground for intelligence and law enforcement agencies. The risk of covert operations and sabotage within Pakistan’s borders will likely force Islamabad to divert resources from other national priorities.
From Strategic Patience to Strategic Pressure
India’s calibrated yet uncompromising measures represent a watershed. No longer willing to absorb terror-related shocks as “episodic,” New Delhi has bundled diplomatic, economic, and hydrological tools into a comprehensive pressure strategy. For Pakistan, the road ahead is fraught with escalating costs:
• Water Insecurity: Disrupted Indus flows threaten food security and rural livelihoods.
• Economic Strain: Border closures and visa bans will aggravate an already fragile economy.
• Diplomatic Isolation: Reduced High Commission staff and zero-sum visa policies deepen the chasm.
• Security Vulnerability: The specter of Indian counter-terrorism operations on Pakistani soil may become a new reality.
Whether Islamabad will recalibrate its policies to reclaim lost ground—or double down on deniability and proxy warfare—remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: the era of strategic patience is over, replaced by an era of strategic pressure that Pakistan can neither ignore nor easily subvert.
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