Abdul Qadir | Team TrickyScribe: With Nitish in poor and apparently decaying health, tantrum-playing allies like Chirag, Manjhi, and Kushwaha, and the likely fallout of the caste census on its otherwise committed supporters, the BJP, more than ever, needs “opponents” like Owaisi to steer its electoral ship to the shores of power.
It is to be noted that Chirag, Manjhi, and Kushwaha are all eager to punch well beyond their respective weight. Recent developments, including the delay in executing the commitment to teach unforgettable lessons to terrorists—more so to their patrons—and the ill-timed caste census announcement, have increased the bargaining strength of the wily and differently shaded allies of the saffron party.
The Role of a ‘Lovable Enemy’
As such, the dependence of the BJP on its ‘lovable enemy’—or pyara dushman as they say in Hindi—becomes all the more important. There was a popular Hindi song in the seventies, “Dushman Dushman Jo Doston Se Pyara Hai.” This song, according to keen observers of the political scene, defines the relationship between the BJP and the Owaisi-led party. Both, being practitioners of the politics of polarisation, supplement each other.
Historical Utility of Owaisi for the BJP
Needless to recall that the invisible ally has been historically useful for the BJP. Be it Bihar, Maharashtra, or even UP for that matter, Owaisi has made things easy for the BJP in crucial elections. The only exception, perhaps, is West Bengal, where the Muslim voters, as people believe, called Owaisi’s bluff. In the recent Jharkhand Assembly elections too, Owaisi ate into the non-BJP votes, but that was not good enough to bring the BJP to power.
A Look Back at Bihar’s Electoral Dynamics
Political analysts generally miss one important point: the last time the NDA convincingly won the Bihar Assembly election was in 2010—a good 15 years back. In 2015, the NDA had to bite the dust, and in 2020, the NDA, despite Nitish, just scraped through with a very slender margin in a match that was very close to a draw.
In that election, Owaisi queered the pitch for the Tejashwi-led Mahagathbandhan, as Owaisi’s party, besides winning 5 seats, made decisive dents in a dozen or so seats to the advantage of the BJP and its allies. Political logic says that all five seats won by Owaisi would have otherwise gone to the Mahagathbandhan. That four of the five Owaisi MLAs subsequently ‘eloped’ with his archrival is another story.
Selective Contesting: A Pattern?
A close analysis of Owaisi’s party makes it clear that it does not contest seats where the BJP is in an apparently invincible position. For example, it has never contested seats in BJP strongholds like Gandhinagar, New Delhi, Bhopal, Lucknow, and Jaipur. In the 2024 Parliamentary elections, it initially announced its intention to contest the Gandhinagar seat of Gujarat but ultimately did not field a candidate. All these seats are regarded as BJP strongholds where the BJP does not need the support of indirect allies.
Forgotten Promises in Seemanchal
Public memory is proverbially short, but it is not short enough to forget that in the 2020 Assembly election, Owaisi claimed that he was not a seasonal election bird and assured the Seemanchal voters that he would remain constantly engaged with them and at their beck and call. Scan his subsequent itinerary, and the bluff will be called.
Circumstantial Evidence and Political Positioning
Legal luminaries heavily depend on circumstantial evidence to prove someone’s complicity in a crime. Political observers too determine the actual location of a politician in the frame using circumstantial tools. Many people feel that the Modi government has been extraordinarily indulgent towards Owaisi and has always given a kid-glove treatment to the leader from Hyderabad.
Owaisi’s Polarising Rhetoric and BJP’s Advantage
Owaisi’s offensive and polarising politics suit the BJP script as it helps Hindu polarisation to the advantage of the BJP. BJP spokespersons decorating prime-time shows are happy to dig Aurangzeb’s grave and Nehru’s archives but rarely refer to the most provocative and communal statement ever made by an Indian Muslim leader—when Owaisi Junior just asked police to stay neutral and give him only 15 minutes to solve the Hindu-Muslim issue once and for all.
Samajwadi Party MPs and many other Muslim leaders have been booked for making statements much milder than Owaisi’s, but the leader whose party has named itself as “Mujahid” (meaning Jihadi) hops from studio to studio only to widen the communal divide.
Special Treatment and Invitations
Only the other day, Union Home Minister Amit Shah personally called Owaisi to attend the all-party meeting where, as per reports, only parties with 10 or more MPs were invited—and Owaisi’s party was not eligible to get an invite for the meet. Owaisi too, not only wore the invite on his sleeve but also came running. There is nothing on record to show that Amit Shah extended a similar courtesy to Rahul, Kharge, Akhilesh, or even Uddhav, his former soul mate.
The Road Ahead
To what extent the Owaisi factor will help the BJP in Bihar, only time will tell. But Owaisi is not going to leave any stone unturned to queer the pitch for the INDIA alliance and make things easy for his friendly ‘enemy’.
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