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If exit poll results come true, Goa is definitely headed to deliver a fractured mandate. Three exit polls conducted are unanimous that the state’s ruling BJP may emerge the single largest party in a hung Assembly.Taking average of all three exit polls, it appears that BJP’s juggernaut may stop in the coastal state at 18, three short of simple majority, while Congress party’s dream of returning to power may yield it just three more seats compared to 2012 when it had won nine seats. It seems Congress may snatch three seats from BJP that had won 21 seats five years back.
Taking average of all three exit polls, it appears that BJP’s juggernaut may stop in the coastal state at 18, three short of simple majority, while Congress party’s dream of returning to power may yield it just three more seats compared to 2012 when it had won nine seats. It seems Congress may snatch three seats from BJP that had won 21 seats five years back.
AAP may manage to open its account by winning three seats, though it had identified Goa as a potential state for its expansion beyond Delhi. AAP still has a low chance in Goa as the state thrives on tourism and the recent incidents of AAPtards troubling expatriots in Delhi is likely to backfire. Tally of Others and Independents will come down from 10 to 7.
Here’s a brief list of possible chief ministerial candidates for the state:
In case BJP manages to form government:
Manohar Parrikar
Union defense minister is unarguably the most popular BJP leader in Goa and the majority of Goans would love him back as the next chief minister. He is an obvious figure even if he denies so. A man with a clean image and humble approach is all they want. So would Parrikar, who had moved to the Centre, rather reluctantly in November 2014.
The 61-year-old IIT Mumbai graduate has deep roots in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) since his student years. He was instrumental in BJP’s phenomenal growth in Goa, got elected as a legislator for the first time in 1994, and served as the Leader of Opposition in 1999 before becoming Goa’s 10th chief minister in 2000. He served in the post till 2005 when a spate of defections from the BJP’s ranks reduced his government to minority.
Union Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar. File photo. PTIUnion Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar. File photo. PTI
It was Parrikar’s strategic masterstroke when he made no attempt to cobble up post-poll alliance after the BJP emerged as the single largest party in hung Goa Assembly in 2007. It paid rich political dividends was BJP won simple majority on its own by winning 21 seats in the 40-member Assembly along with three seats won by its ally Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) in 2012.
Parrikar as chief minister brought stability to Goa’s infamous murky politics and initiated a slew of development-oriented and people-friendly measures until his services were requisitioned by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to clean up the Defence Ministry perennially associated with controversial defense deals.
BJP realized its folly that without Parrikar it stood no chance of retaining power by the time the next election arrived. He was given a free hand to direct the Goa government and run the party, making him the virtual super chief minister. Parrikar spent more time in Goa than in Delhi and the BJP threw broad hints that he would be sent back as Goa chief minister if voted to power again. The strategy seems to have paid off as prospect of Parrikar back as Goa chief minister is believed to have helped get extra votes.
Circumstances will dictate if Parrikar would be back where Goans want him to. He may be asked to form the next government if BJP falls short of the majority since his magnetic personality will attract Independents and some smaller parties to support BJP. However, if BJP gets majority on its own, Parrikar may stay put as the defence minister and asked to nominate the new chief minister, as he was asked to in 2014 when he handpicked Laxmikant Parsekar as his successor.
Laxmikant Parsekar
Uncertainty hovers over incumbent Goa Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar’s future even in the event of BJP forming the new Goa government as he failed to stand upto the party expectations.
Parrikar had nominated Parsekar as his successor since he allegedly did not want a strong leader to emerge from the BJP ranks as his replacement. Like Parrikar, Parsekar too enjoys unstained reputation which is something so uncommon in Goa’s politics. But the comparison between the two ends there. Parsekar tried to learn and did his best, which was not good enough to make him popular either within the party or in the state, forcing BJP not to project him the chief ministerial face or seek votes on his name.
The lackluster and indecisive Parrikar has left two major decisions for his successor to tackle. He failed to move the Supreme Court with review petition after the Apex Court in mid-December announced ban on liquor outlets within radius of 500 metre of national and state highways from April 1. This threatens large-scale closure of liquor outlets, causing unemployment and domino effect being felt now by cashew nut farmers who are unsure about what to do with the massive crop this season, as brewing Feni, Goan hooch made of cashew, has ceased to be a lucrative option for them now in view of closure of liquor outlets and decline in demand of Goa’s favourite alcoholic drink.
Francis D’Souza
Demand for BJP expanding its social base by opting to nominate a Christian community leader as the next Goa chief minister has been growing for some time. It may enable BJP earn the goodwill of the powerful Christian community, especially in South Goa.
Francis D’Souza, the incumbent deputy chief minister is the first choice in that scenario. D’Souza, 62, entered Goa Assembly in 1999 and remains undefeated since then. He was appointed deputy chief minister when Parrikar came to power in 2012. He was seen as a strong contender to replace Parrikar as chief minister in 2014 and made his displeasure public when his claim was overlooked in favour of Parsekar, while asking him to continue as deputy chief minister.
D’Souza utilized the long break between polling and result to get his ailing heart operated in a Mumbai hospital and is said to be ready to throw his hat in the ring again.
In case BJP overlooks D’Souza again but wants to pick a Christian leader as the new chief minister, then its possible choice would be popular Calangute legislator Michael Lobo whose rags to riches story inspires the Goa’s youth.
Lobo washed dishes in a Panjim (now Panaji) bar to support his education and ended up becoming its manager. Today he owns nearly a dozen resorts and restro-bars in North Goa. He has earned reputation of a visionary hardworking legislator. Whether BJP opts for the 40-year-old Lobo will be interesting to look for.
If Parrikar is asked to stay put in Delhi and BJP overlooks Parsekar, D’Souza and Lobo, party’s Goa unit chief Vinay Tendulkar could come into contention.
Whosoever becomes the next chief minister from BJP, one thing is sure that he would have to be Parrikar’s yes-man since he may be asked to name one by the party’s Parliamentary Board.
In case the Congress comes to power (though the chances are timid):
Luizinho Faleiro
Luizinho Faleiro may be the first though not the most popular choice in case the Congress party returns to power.
Faleiro had served as Goa chief minister for 168 days in 1999 and is seen as being close to party chief Sonia Gandhi. He was serving as the national general secretary of the party when was asked by Sonia to shift to Goa as the state unit president in 2014 to rebuild the ailing party.
Faleiro has done his best but whether his best is good enough to steer Congress party to power remains to be seen.
The outspoken 65-year-old Faleiro was seen lambasting his party leaders in public, faced hurdles in implementing his youth-first plan and failed to end factionalism within the state unit of the party. At the end, he was heading just another faction instead of the party and was seen dejected and disappointed as his baiters had established direct contact with Digvijaya Singh, the national general secretary in-charge for Goa.
Faleiro’s baiters would try to put stumbling blocks in his path of becoming the chief minister in case the Congress party manages to form the new Goa government. His only hope is Sonia Gandhi whose dictate continues to rule the roost in the party.
Digambar Kamat
Digambar Kamat, 62, is famous for political manipulations and is the last chief minister from the Congress ranks. It was his manipulations that enabled him to survive as chief minister for five years between 2007 and 2012. Kamat managed to form the government despite the Congress party winning one seat less than the rival BJP in 2007 elections. His government was reduced to a minority in the very first year after resignations and alliance break ups. But Kamat survived to complete his full five year tenure but at the cost of making the party unpopular with BJP winning majority and the Congress party getting reduced to the single figure after winning just nine seats in 2012 Assembly polls.
Kamat is the typical face of Goa’s politics that degenerated and rotted for long. He started his political career with the Congress party, quit it to join BJP when he was denied nomination in 1994 elections. He was serving as a minister in BJP-led Parrikar government when his chief ministerial ambitions got better of him. He quit the government and party, returned to the Congress party while toppling Parrikar government. He finally fulfilled his chief ministerial ambitions when BJP opted to sit in the Opposition despite being the largest party in 2007.
Kamat can be rightfully blamed for the decline of the Congress party in Goa and rise of BJP. But his chances cannot be ruled out as despite all, he probably is the most popular Congress leader from Goa right now.
Pratapsingh Rane
The septuagenarian Pratapsingh Rane was at one time the most popular leader of Goa and has the unique distinction of being the last chief minister of the Union Territory Goa, Daman and Diu and the first chief minister when Goa became a full-fledged state while he was the chief minister between 1980 and 1990. He is also credited for ending the 16 years of uninterrupted rule of Goa, Daman and Diu of the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP).
Rane is credited for many developments that Goa witnessed in the 1980s. He has served as Goa chief minister six times, the last being for little over two years between 2005 and 2007.
Although he has been grooming his legislator son Vishwajit Rane as his successor in Goa politics, Rane senior may still have claim to become the next chief minister since he served as Leader of Opposition in the outgoing Assembly.
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@ScribeTricky
“The more you sweat in peace, less you bleed in war”
Ancient Chinese Proverb
The recent drill of Indian Army and subsequent politicisation of issue leaves the maxim in tatters. With furore launched by Mamata Banerjee over the deployment of Army in West Bengal has brought Indian politics on all new all time low.
Army deployment has been questioned by many and has to be answered categorically.
The social media too responded to the situation accordingly and was thronged initially by posts with #nabanna, #MamataCoupCharge and #secretariat hashtags. Later trended the tags: #FrustratedMamata, #AntiNationalsExposed and #DontPoliticiseArmy.
Major General Sunil Yadav, GoC of Bengal area, in an official statement, categorically denied the allegations and said that the exercise was not carried out in vacuum and the authorities concerned were well informed. That apart, he said, initially the exercise was planned to be conducted from November 28 to November 30, but was postponed on account of Bharat Band.
Secondly, the West Bengal was not only state where exercise was conducted it was done in the entire North Eastern region. Similar exercises were carried out earlier in Bihar, Jharkhand and UP from September 26 to October 1. It was only cynical of Didi who tried to politicise the issue. This was part of annual routine to ascertain the availability of transport carriers in case of National emergency.
Defence of India Act, 1971:
The Act mandates Government to empower services to carry out impressments of vessels, aircrafts, vehicles, etc. to conduct military operations efficiently. The annual exercise is part of standby preparedness for the same.
Did we forget the debacle of 1962? It was largely because the incompetent leadership in planning, preparedness and execution put on display by the trio of Nehru-Menon- Lieutenant General B M Kaul.
Do we want a repetition? If not, shouldn’t army have a gauge that how much of civilian vehicles are available in hand and could be used for logistical support? How can one doubt this aspect for better preparedness? Don’t we prepare for our exams or job interviews?
Let’s not drag Army into it:
Mudslinging on the political spectrum has become a routine but it has come to all time low recently. By dragging Army while targeting party holding New Delhi; opposition is ruining its own chances. With mass recruitment base in the hinterland, Army and its retired command respect in the popular perception.
Indian Army has always been an apolitical force loyal to the Republic and respectful to the Democratic ethos of the country.
Latest issue along with the demand for the video of surgical strike, opposition is transgressing the Lakshman Rekha while questioning the credibility of the intention of the Armed Forces, thereby, failing in its test of credibility.
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@ScribeTricky
Although in a different context, P Sainath, a scribe-turned agronomist, used the imagery of Nero’s Guest to epitomize the popular idea that feels comfortable in blaming someone in order to absolve many of the misdeeds.
This blame game is the most fun part for some who try to escalate issues on a different track altogether.
Ambiguous? Let us take a look on some popular figures to understand the issue with some better clarity.
Hitler:
One of the most tainted persons of the last century, the Holocaust assassin of Germany has been vilified. Of the many, who were brought to the Book for war crimes, it was Hitler who symbolised Barbarianism. And it was displayed on a scale unknown hitherto.
Though, this save hell lot of money on the German part that it was supposed pay in form of war indemnities.
Stalin:
Though loved and revered when alive, Stalin was hated and despised when dead. Numerous stories, of which many seem to be fabricated, have become part of the folklore.
The rampant de-Stalinization drive that was launched by Khuruschev made a devil out of a man. We, the commoners, were happy in condemning Stalin and did not bother to find those who were equal partners in crime.
This gave sanctity to the rise of Nikita Khuruschev as the head of the Red Guards.
Mao:
Mao miraculously till date manages to be ‘The Chairman’ for many in China. Globally Mao is name that provokes lost lives and forced destitution that were cost in Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution.
It is Mao, however, who is singled out to be blamed for all and not many are curious of others who were his Comrades in same pursuit.
Demonization of Mao, though, saved the West from dreaded loss of ideological face.
Indira:
‘Iron Lady’ as many remember, Indira Gandhi, is equally infamous for the massive excesses that were committed while the Emergency was proclaimed in India. Evidently the entire opposition was put behind the bar and world’s largest democracy was on the brink of dissolution. Fortunately, better sense prevailed and the Emergency was withdrawn.
Popular discontentment was on its all time high and masses enraged. Baba Nagarjuna, a renowned Hindi poet, wrote “इन्दु जी, इन्दु जी, क्या हुआ आपको? बेटे को तार दिया, बोर दिया बाप को!” (Indira, what happened to you? In your bid to save the kid, you almost killed his father i.e. you almost killed the nation while trying to preserve it).
This chapter of Indian Polity, if recalled, gives orgasms to those who feel compelled to blame her for the alleged aberration of the Indian Democracy.
A bird’s eye on the Emergency can evidently point to the Members of Parliament who were who were then at large are also to be blamed for the excessive repression. None of them buttonholed to get resolution for the continuation of Emergency defeated in either of the Houses of Parliament.
But yet, it was Indira who is still held culprit of the Act. This reaped the anti-Congress front windfall gains in the Cow Belt.
NaMo:
The jobless growth of the Indian economy to terrorist attacks to surgical strikes to demonetisation, we are, yet again, turning the cycle of History. Though the recent mudslinging may take Indian democracy to the Nadir, politicos, eyeing immediate gains in the upcoming assembly elections, are indulging in it happily.
By singling out an individual we won’t find culprits of History but will absolve henchmen.
Wolves need packs to hunt. They say. A lone wolf can do nothing but to perish. It is not the individual, who apparently holds the helms, is the ‘in-charge’ of entire resolution-execution cycle. It, on the contrary, is a team effort. The blade spares none!
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We can agree to disagree. They say. The authorities have two options: write them and their demands off or bring them on board. The scenario prevalent implies that the latter is a win-win situation for the parties involved.
Columbian Experience:
After fighting bitterly for nearly half a century, Colombian Government and its rival FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, a left rebel group) have to come to an understanding of ending the futile Civil War. Though the initial referendum was lost by a thin majority, both parties didn’t call of the peace process and revised the terms of the accord.
Nobel peace prize winner and incumbent Colombian President, Juan Manuel Santos, expressed his sincere gratitude to the Senate and Congress for ratifying the peace accord. Though, this is a small step in the direction where things would normalize in upcoming days, but it is a welcome start.
Nepalese Experience:
Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) and seven-party alliance, ruling Nepal then, successfully negotiated peace deal in 2002-03 after waging a decade-long Civil War in Nepal. Interestingly, a major section Maoists have been drawn into Constitutional framework, whereby they have given up extra-constitutional forms of struggle.
The absorption of dissenters in the mainstream politics has saved many innocent lives from being lost in the Himalayan State.
Inferences:
Incidences of usefulness of drawing dissenters are numerous. In India, there are many cases where hitherto rebels were drawn, successfully, into the mainstream political institutions. The lasting peace in Mizoram to the dreaded dacoits of Chambal, Indian constitutional mechanism has welcomed dissenters to join the mainstream and be part of system for the larger welfare of the masses.
Though on occasions pretty late, however, Indian State extends it outreach to the dissenters to get on board and they too should reciprocate timely. Petty provokers of dissents, be them Naxals or Separatists in Kashmir or in the north-east, are themselves aware that they can’t withstand the might of the Indian State but for petty self interests they extend futile proxy resistance.
Talk of the Town:
With Conservative backlash globally, the talk of the town is getting binarified, either with me or against me. Both the parties need to collaborate their stances to get in tune with each other’s aspirations and cater accordingly.
Workshop of History:
Once revisiting past, History instructively show that getting dissentors on board is good for the humanity in large. Both the parties have to show the grit to come to the terms.
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